RBI Repo Rate Outlook: What SBI Research Predicts for Home Loans

India’s monetary outlook continues to be in focus as home loan borrowers look for potential relief. According to a recent analysis by SBI Research, the chances of another RBI repo rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting appear limited. The report highlights that major global central banks have entered a phase of policy pause, suggesting that aggressive rate cuts are now less likely.

The latest assessment indicates that the Reserve Bank of India may maintain the current repo rate at its December 2025 meeting. This means borrowers may not see any immediate reduction in home loan EMIs, especially those linked to external benchmarks.

Earlier this year, the RBI delivered a cumulative 100 basis points cut, prompting several banks to reduce both lending and deposit rates. However, despite this easing cycle, SBI Research notes that fresh lending rates for many new loans across banks have slightly increased. This trend shows that structural market factors continue to influence interest-rate transmission.

For millions of home loan borrowers, the expectation of an additional interest rate cut may now be pushed further, depending on inflation trends, liquidity conditions, and future policy decisions. With the repo rate likely to remain unchanged in the near term, borrowers should be prepared for stable EMIs unless macroeconomic conditions shift significantly.

Also Read: BoB Predicts RBI Will Keep Repo Rate Steady at 5.50% This December

While previous rate cuts brought relief to households, the current outlook from SBI Research points to a prolonged wait before any new RBI repo rate reduction. For now, homeowners and prospective buyers must monitor economic developments as the central bank continues its cautious approach to monetary easing.

Experts Viewpoint

Parvinder Singh, CEO, Trident Realty - “Homebuyers today are extremely price sensitive, and even a small reduction in borrowing cost can make a big difference in their decision to purchase. We believe that a measured cut in the present 5.50% repo rate will support affordability and boost confidence in the housing market. While the sector has remained resilient, a supportive interest rate environment will encourage more aspiring buyers to step forward and invest in their own homes. We hope the RBI will consider the current market sentiments and provide the much-needed push for sustained growth in the real estate sector”.

Rajjath Goel, Managing Director, MRG Group -  "The current economic resilience has brought the sector to an interesting juncture. A pause in December is understandable, but the underlying indicators, especially easing inflation and liquidity stability, suggest that policymakers are inching closer to an accommodative cycle. For Gurugram’s luxury housing, even a 25-basis-point cut can meaningfully lift the sentiment of buyers and investors who are actively reallocating wealth into real estate. A softer repo environment in early 2026 would further deepen the momentum we’re witnessing, accelerating absorption in marquee projects and reinforcing luxury housing as a long-term wealth creation asset".

Harvinder Singh Sikka, Chairman Sikka Group - "As the RBI gears up to announce the policy tomorrow, the industry is keenly watching. Keeping the repo rate unchanged or changing it, the efforts would be aimed at a delicate balance between containing inflation and furthering economic growth. As far as real estate is concerned, both situations bring different sets of implications: stable rates keep affordability intact, while any calibrated change would reflect broader economic priorities. At Sikka Group, we believe clarity from the central bank helps buyers and developers plan with confidence, and we look forward to the guidance the RBI will offer."

Yash Miglani, Managing Director, Migsun Group - "The review of the repo rate tomorrow is expected to be either a hold or a calibrated move as per the signals emanating from economic indicators. Both situations have their impact-the continuance of rates as before keeps demand stable, whereas any adjustment indicates how the central bank would look to control inflation and liquidity. We consider this policy update to be a relevant framework in the context of market sentiments, and we are ready to gear up accordingly in either direction that RBI might consider fitting at this juncture."

Sanjay Sharma, Director, SKA Group - "Given the current macroeconomic scenario reflecting strong GDP growth, controlled inflation, and stable buyer sentiment, the sector anticipates the December policy to either be slightly reduced or be a finely balanced call. Even if the MPC maintains the status quo, we expect the benign inflation trend to create room for a rate cut early next year. For Noida–Greater Noida & Ghaziabad, where end-user driven demand is bringing a surge in luxury homes, even a marginal reduction in home-loan rates can unlock a new wave of affordability. Developers are preparing for a more upbeat first quarter, with fence-sitters likely to convert once borrowing costs begin softening sustainably”.

Also Read: New Home Rent Rules 2025: A Complete Guide for Landlords & Tenants

Ashok Singh Jaunapuriya, MD & CEO, SS Group - "With economists indicating that December will most likely be a status-quo policy, the industry must prepare for stability rather than immediate relief. Gurugram’s premium housing markets are demonstrating strong absorption despite unchanged rates, showing that the sector has matured. While a rate cut would certainly improve sentiment, buyers in the city today are taking long-term calls based on asset value, not short-term fluctuations. Our view is that once inflation remains anchored for a few more months, the RBI will have the comfort to ease rates. Until then, the stability itself supports healthy, sustained growth”.